Conflicting signals

Good morning. Military strikes continue as the US and Iran wrangle over talks. The Trump administration is said to be examining what a major spike in oil would mean. And on Wall Street, bankers are coming off a bumper year with a surge in bonuses. Listen to the day's top stories.

— Marc Perrier

Oil climbed as persistent Middle East tensions, coupled with conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran over ceasefire talks, fueled fears of a global energy shock. While Donald Trump has pushed for negotiations to end the war, the US has also ordered thousands of troops to the region, fanning fears of a risky ground invasion. As military strikes continue in the region, keep up with the latest developments with our blog.

Iran is working on a draft bill that would impose a fee on vessels seeking safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. The narrow waterway has been all but closed since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began almost a month ago. Here's an explainer on what it would take to reopen it.

BlackRock President Rob Kapito said investors may be underestimating the risks stemming from the Iran war, warning growth may be hit by as much as two percentage points and oil could spike to $150 a barrel. Check out the latest on what's happening in the markets.

Wall Street bonuses jumped last year, with the total pool rising to $49.2 billion —the largest in records going back to 1987. The average bonus rose 6% to $246,900, New York State Comptroller estimates show. Bankers started 2026 on a high after a windfall last year that included a record $134 billion of trading revenue and an upswing in dealmaking.

Not as rosy. Former Goldman chief Lloyd Blankfein warned of a "fire" risk in private assets, saying a spark may trigger a widespread markdown. Here's his interview with Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua. Apollo's Jim Zelter and Blue Owl's Doug Ostrover said the industry failed to clearly explain liquidity restrictions to investors now rushing for the exits.

There's a lot at stake for Apple in 2026, from its latest devices to an AI comeback and the future after Tim Cook, . What do you want to know? Bring your questions to our Live Q&A conversation between Mark Gurman and Tim Stenovec today at 11 a.m. EDT. Send questions in advance to [email protected] with the subject line "2026 Apple."

Deep Dive: What If?

Trump administration officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices to as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, according to people familiar with the matter.

• The effort is aimed at making sure the administration is prepared for all contingencies, including a prolonged conflict, and is part of regular assessment done during times of strain.
• Oil hitting $200 would be an enormous shock to the world economy as US recession risks are beginning to rise.
• Tight crude supplies are already boosting prices of products that consumers actually use, like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

The Big Take

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Opinion

Gold's haven reputation has been tarnished by its decline since the Iran conflict began, Marcus Ashworth writes. Central banks may begin selling or leveraging reserves, suggesting the metal is really more of a piggy bank.

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Markets Want to Declare an Off-Ramp and Go Home

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Before You Go

Securing a reservation at Tokyo's elite sushi counters has become increasingly challenging as tourism hits record highs. Top counters seat just six to eight guests, with only one or two sittings a night. Lucky for you, we have a guide on how to find—and book—the best spots at any budget.

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