Trump caught in a vise

Good morning. Three weeks into the Iran war, Donald Trump is in the grip of a vise of his own making. What if a prolonged market downturn depletes your retirement savings? And a Picasso masterpiece is languishing in a basement in Tehran. Listen to the day's top stories.

— Angela Cullen

The Iran war is showing no signs of easing as Tehran keeps up attacks on Arab states in the Persian Gulf even after Israel signaled it would spare the country's energy infrastructure. Iran's Revolutionary Guard insists it's still building missiles and vowed the war will continue. Oil is headed for another weekly surge. For Iranians abroad, the information void at home—where internet traffic has all but disappeared—is becoming unbearable. Follow the latest in our live blog.

Traders are parsing every headline, as monetary policymakers warn about the inflationary risk posed by the conflict. The European Central Bank will need to consider hiking interest rates as soon as April if price pressures build further, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said. The chaos unleashed by the war is driving Europe into the arms of China. Meanwhile, Japan's new leader, Sanae Takaichi, is likely breathing a sigh of relief after her first meeting with Donald Trump at the White House yesterday, despite his Pearl Harbor jibe.

As if the market turbulence sparked by the war wasn't enough, Wall Street is bracing for $5.7 trillion in options expiring in today's triple-witching, which risks injecting yet more volatility. To stay on top of the all the mayhem, investors are turning to AI to stress test scenarios and map out potential ripple effects across asset classes.

As Trump becomes more isolated internationally, one underdog ally is having a moment. Entrepreneurs are flocking to Paraguay, where sleek towers rise above Asunción, its once-sleepy capital, as conservative President Santiago Peña cozies up to the US. Roughly the size of California, the country's $47 billion economy is only about 1% of the Golden State's, yet rapid growth and economic reforms in recent years have put it on the map.

The Big Take

Fire breaks out at the Shahran oil depot after US and Israeli attacks in Tehran, on March 8. Photographer: Hassan Ghaedi/Anadolu/Getty Images

Donald Trump's conflicting messages on the war in Iran represent an all-too familiar quandary for the US president, who now confronts a vise grip of his own making.

Deep Dive: Preparing for Retirement

Hector and Chrissy Gannon at their home in Latitude Margaritaville, in Daytona Beach, Florida. Photographer: Scott McIntyre for Bloomberg Businessweek

Odds are, one day you'll stop working. But for most Americans, retirement no longer means an office party at age 65 complete with a gold watch and a pension—if it ever meant that at all. Whether you choose your retirement date or it's chosen for you, we've prepared some tips on how to get the most out of post-work life.

• Running out of money is every retiree's nightmare, especially if a prolonged market downturn depletes their savings. The good news is that long periods of losses are relatively rare.
• Some people in their 60s prefer to keep on working, feeling they're in their professional prime. Others opt to go on a cruise, even looking to live (and not just vacation) on the high seas.
• Warm weather, a low cost of living and a relaxed pace have always been high on the list of criteria for people looking for a place to retire. But for an increasing number of Americans, the ideal destination has another ingredient: being outside the US.
• For one couple, retirement has been a hard lesson. Here's what they might have done differently.

Opinion

Photographer: Gary Hershorn/Corbis News

The US must not become a nation of emigrants, Bloomberg's editors write. Until elected officials open more legal avenues for immigrants to come—and tackle the conditions that are leading unprecedented numbers of citizens to depart—American workers and businesses will suffer the consequences.

Our daily word puzzle with a plot twist.

Today's clue is: World leader summit

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Before You Go

The 1927 masterpiece has occasionally been seen in Tehran, and only once outside it, since Iran's empress bought it in 1977. Photographer: dpa picture alliance/Alamy/www.alamy.com

As war engulfs Iran, a Picasso masterpiece is languishing in a basement in Tehran. Without The Painter and His Model, art historians believe the Spanish master could never have created his iconic Guernica, a portrait of a city under terrible aerial bombardment. In a disturbing historical echo, the Iranian capital is suffering the same fate.

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