Washington Edition: How deals get done in Congress

I'm Jonathan Tamari, senior Washington reporter for Bloomberg Government, and each weekday I'll be coming to you with inside-the-room reporting and insights that reveal what's really happening in Washington—and how it impacts you. Email me with feedback and comments here. If this newsletter was forwarded to you sign up here.

In today's edition: Tuesdays aren't deal days, a flip in Mar-a-Lago's district, and an airline CEO with scary math on oil prices.

How to Get Things Done in Congress

Here's how deals now work in Congress:

• Step 1: Declare victory.
• Step 2: Don't have a victory.
• Step 3: Negotiate more.
• Step 4: Come together/cave just in time for recess.

The standoff over funding for the Department of Homeland Security brought Step 1 on Monday and Step 2 on Tuesday, when members of both parties complained about Republican leaders' proposed solution.

Now comes the real action: watch for movement today and Thursday as Republicans and Democrats try to find a compromise as growing lines make air travel somehow even worse.

The Capitol, like most workplaces, has its own rhythm. Tuesdays aren't deal days, as Bloomberg's Steven T. Dennis put it when we chatted. Mostly they are good for putting down markers.

Deals are more likely to come late in the week as lawmakers' flights home approach. That's especially true when they have a recess coming, like the two-week break scheduled to start this weekend. 

Photographer: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg

The evolving plan looks like this: Republicans put forward a bill to fund DHS with one exception — $5.5 billion for ICE enforcement operations. It would pay some of ICE's budget in addition to TSA, customs and other DHS agencies.

Key questions remain for both parties:

• For Democrats - What, if any, changes to ICE tactics can they secure? Will they be written into law? The big asks – unmasking agents and requiring judicial warrants for entering homes – are likely out. They might have a chance to win some kind of identification on ICE agents and use of body cameras. 
  
  Most Democrats will likely vote against any money for ICE. But as we saw in last year's shutdown, it only takes a handful of senators to cross party lines and end the standoff. 
  
  Some of their more moderate members were notably muted Tuesday, suggesting they're open to a deal.

• For Republicans - Will they take a deal without the voter ID bill Trump has demanded?
  
  They'll aim to pass elements of voter ID and the remaining ICE money through the reconciliation process (which allows them to approve measures with a bare majority of 51 votes).
  
  Even many Republicans doubt that's possible. It's a long process that will require near unanimity among the GOP. Because the procedure is meant for fiscal issues, the voter ID push might be nixed by Senate rules.
  
  "It's hard to imagine" how voter ID would pass using that method, Senator Mike Lee, the ID bill's most vocal advocate, posted. "And by 'hard' I mean 'essentially impossible.'"

It's also hard (if not quite impossible) to imagine most Republicans opposing a bill that funds DHS – especially if Trump backs it.

And if they needed encouragement? "Any deal they make," Trump said, "I'm pretty much not happy with it."

So things could always go awry, but this dance is awfully familiar. 

There might be more posturing, but check back on Thursday. That's deal day.

Top News

Peace Plan: The US has compiled a 15-point peace proposal for Iran, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Iran has yet to comment on the proposal, but a series of officials have denied negotiations are taking place.

Backyard Flip: In a surprise upset, a Democrat is projected to have won a state race for a district that includes Mar-a-Lago. Emily Gregory is poised to defeat her Republican opponent, Jon Maples, in a special election for Florida's 87th legislative district.

Deregulation Progress: For all the talk about canceling a record number of regulations across the federal government, the Trump administration has only erased a handful of big-ticket rules more than a year into his second term, according to a review by Bloomberg Law.

Oil Worries: Whether you think the Iran war will end soon or not, "US officials are making oil trading even harder," Alex Longley writes in his analysis of how the conflict is affecting the commodity sector.

Tariff Refunds: A recent wave of consumer-driven litigation is seeking to recoup tariff-related fees from companies like FedEx, UPS, and Costco. At least 17 lawsuits have been filed by consumers who say the companies are wrongly keeping money they charged after the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs unlawful.

Big in Texas: Republicans are planning an unusual party convention in a midterm year, and are weighing up Dallas as the host city. Texas is also home to one of this year's toughest Senate races. Trump is staying out of the GOP's heated primary there, Nancy Cook wrote in yesterday's evening edition of this newsletter.

Missouri's Map: A Republican redraw of Missouri's congressional map survived a challenge in the state Supreme Court. The new version would dismantle one of the state's two Democratic-held districts, but more legal challenges remain, per Greg Giroux.

MAHA's New Formula: The FDA is gearing up to change infant formula regulations for the first time in nearly 30 years, and is considering allowing nutrient requirements to be met "through alternative methods," a top agency official tells Skye Witley in an exclusive interview.

Watch & Listen

Go Deeper With BGov

Fights over kids' online safety legislation have included whose duty it is to check the age of any app users. BGOV analyst John Woolley lays out all the competing proposals in an exclusive review for BGOV and Terminal readers here.

What's Next

• CPAC begins in Texas
• Acting TSA director testifies at DHS hearing in House
• The Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing on tokenization
• The Senate Budget Committee will hold a full committee hearing discussing Social Security
• Mortgage application data is released

More From Bloomberg

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• Congress Tracker for BGOV clients to stay on top of the action on the Hill
• FOIA Files for Jason Leopold's weekly newsletter uncovering government documents never seen before
• Morning Briefing Americas for catching up on everything you need to know

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