Mashadipati

Washington Edition: Trump’s next big decision

Sending ground troops into Iran presents huge risks ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
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I'm Jonathan Tamari, senior Washington reporter for Bloomberg Government, and each weekday I'll be coming to you with inside-the-room reporting and insights that reveal what's really happening in Washington—and how it impacts you. Email me with feedback and comments here. If this newsletter was forwarded to you sign up here.

Today, Trump ponders ground troops, the IRS faces tax season after DOGE and a new moon launch is coming.

Is Donald Trump Going to Do it?

The biggest question hanging over Washington – and the world – at the start of the week is whether the president is going to send US ground troops into Iran, or if his maneuvering is another example of trying to build negotiating leverage. 

The risks are immense: for US forces, first and foremost. But also tor the global economy, for any sense of order left in the Middle East, for Republicans and for US politics.

Thousands of American troops amassed in the Middle East over the weekend, including an amphibious assault team. Trump told reporters late Sunday that Iran "gave" the US most of what it was asking for in negotiations, without specifying what. 

Reports from both the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal suggest Trump is seriously considering sending in ground troops – potentially to seize Iranian uranium, per WSJ. He told the Financial Times he wants to "take the oil in Iran."

If so, it would be a major escalation in a war that has so far had little public support and no formal debate in Congress, let alone a vote to authorize such a step. 

The maneuvering comes as we enter the fifth week of what the White House predicted would be a four-to-six week campaign, and as Trump vacillates between saying the war was nearly won, and threatening new steps. The fighting and fallout are spreading, with Houthis attacking Israel over the weekend, Israel expanding its operation in Lebanon, and oil prices surging again.

To some Trump supporters, sending in ground forces is a sign of the hard-negotiating president pressuring a rival with everything he has. 

"The president's right to be able to put troops in the area and to be able to ratchet up the pressure on Iran to make a deal," GOP Senator James Lankford said Sunday on Meet the Press.

But to Democrats and a faction of America First conservatives, sending in ground troops would be a betrayal of one of Trump's central campaign promises – and it would risk becoming yet another example of presidents drawn into intractable, unpopular conflicts.

"They've gotten us into what will be looked at as one of the greatest blunders, presidential blunders, of our time," Democratic Senator Cory Booker told Meet the Press. 

He added, "We are in a global crisis of his causing."

Even some Republicans have said a ground invasion would require approval from Congress – though we'll believe there's real muscle behind those sentiments when we see it (and lawmakers are away on recess for two weeks).

Whatever the Constitution's legal frameworks, Trump has made clear that this decision is his, for better or worse.

Perhaps it will help complete his most audacious operation yet. Or it could worsen the world's economic shocks, and at the same time deepen America's commitment to a fight that could drag on with no clear end game. That combination would be a recipe for global and political disaster.

It's up to Trump to decide if it's worth the risk.

Top News

Post-DOGE IRS: A year after Elon Musk set out to slash jobs at the IRS, the nation's federal tax agency finds itself struggling to meet demands halfway through the busy tax season, BTAX's Erin Schilling and Erin Slowey report. A backlog of millions of tax returns that need revisions could exceed Covid-19 pandemic levels later this year.

Chokepoint: Barely six ships per day have passed through the Strait of Hormuz during the war's first month, compared to 135 a day usually, Weilun Soon and Prejula Prem found. And 80% of the oil tankers making it through have been from Iran or its allies.

Spy Powers: The renewal of a controversial spying law is going down to the wire in Congress, BGOV's Roxana Tiron and Maeve Sheehey report. The law, known as FISA, has long split the GOP between security hawks, who say it's essential to protect the country, and libertarians, who fear that a provision allowing warrantless spying on foreign targets can also sweep up info on Americans.

Epstein's Lawyers: Jeffrey Epstein's defense team, in an effort led by Jay Lefkowitz from Kirkland & Ellis, pressured officials at the Justice Department about the legal representation of Epstein's victims, according to files released in January.

To the Moon: NASA is heading back to the moon with its Artemis program, with plans to launch a crew of four this week around it as a precursor for a landing this decade. What's not clear is why the agency is spending nearly $100 billion to repeat a journey it has already made.

God Squad: More than a year into Trump's second term, the Endangered Species Committee is set to meet for the first time on March 31 after a legal challenge failed to stop it. It will be the first such convening in almost 35 years of a group that has the power to effectively condemn a species to extinction, earning it a nickname: the God Squad.

Watch This

Senator Todd Young and Senator Elissa Slotkin discuss their bipartisan measure to bring transparency to prediction markets on Bloomberg This Weekend Watch Now
Senator Todd Young and Senator Elissa Slotkin discuss their bipartisan measure to bring transparency to prediction markets on Bloomberg This Weekend

Go Deeper With BGOV

Palantir won 40% of the Pentagon's contract spending on a relatively new way of procuring commercial technology last fiscal year, according to analysis by BGOV's Maika Ito.

The company won $27 million for software licenses and app development under unclassified commercial solutions openings.

What's Next

  • Data on consumer confidence and job openings is released
  • Fed chair Jerome Powell participates in a discussion at Harvard

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