Fragile truce

Good morning. Donald Trump vows to keep troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran. Democrats are projected to be within striking distance of taking the House and the Senate. And heli-hiking isn’t cheating, honest. Listen to the day’s top stories.

— Angela Cullen

Donald Trump vowed to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran planned to firm up a fragile truce. Oil rose and the global equity relief rally faded as optimism over the US-Iran ceasefire wavered, with disruptions persisting in the Strait of Hormuz. The US has asked European allies for rapid plans to help secure the waterway, while two Chinese oil tankers are poised to cross it in a crucial test. Follow the latest in our live blog.

History repeats? The unpopular war and voters’ discontent with the cost of living have put Democrats within striking distance of repeating a historic victory notched two decades ago, when the party pulled off a stunning Senate upset to win control of Congress. Their chances likely hinge mostly on four states, with several more potentially in play. One polarizing figure who’s gone quiet ahead of the midterms is Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The outspoken vaccine critic has been put on a low-risk messaging diet.

Source: Grupo Salinas

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas, with echoes of Trump, is known for playing hardball in confronting tax troubles and business disputes. Could he challenge the country’s popular president? Meanwhile, across the Gulf of Mexico, Cuba’s economy is in deep crisis. One proposal lays out a bold plan that might reshape the island’s future with major reforms and potential US involvement.

Photographer: Chris Welch/Bloomberg

If you’re in the market for new headphones, the AirPods Max 2 are worth a look—as long as you’re committed to Apple’s ecosystem and willing to pay a premium.

And, get ready. The 2026 Masters begins today at Augusta National with Northern Irishman Rory McIlroy aiming to become the first back-to-back winner since Tiger Woods. But World No. 1 and two-time champ Scottie Scheffler is the top pick among oddsmakers. Legends Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player and Tom Watson will hit ceremonial tee shots at about 7:25 a.m. ET.

The Big Take

Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg

Viktor Orbán has spent the last 16 years building one of Europe’s most durable political machines. But a sputtering economy and a formidable new challenger are pushing his project to the brink.

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Why Orbán’s Grip on Hungary Is Slipping

Deep Dive: Well-Timed Bets

Photographer: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg

The insider-trading concerns surrounding the Iran conflict continue to widen after the detection of unusual trading patterns in oil and equity futures last month, moments before Donald Trump announced that the US was postponing military strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

• Billions of dollars in futures and financial contracts tied to at least 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate were sold in the minutes before Trump’s post on social media, prompting calls for an investigation.
• The geopolitical uncertainty has fueled a surge in prediction market activity. Bets on a ceasefire between the US and Iran have sent more than $170 million coursing through Polymarket, making it one of the largest geopolitical wagers in the platform’s short history.
• The episode highlights broader concerns about market integrity as new financial venues proliferate—from crypto and prediction markets to exchange-traded funds and private credit, as the Trump administration pursues aggressive deregulation.
• Yet almost all of the recent cases raising insider trading concerns have been based on circumstantial evidence, with no smoking gun pointing to specific insiders at work.
• Industry pioneer Thomas Peterffy says it’s futile to try and prevent it in any case. “As a society, we are better off knowing as soon as possible anything that is knowable,” he argues. Since bad actors are already taking advantage of inside information, earlier disclosure would reduce opportunities for the “sharks” to profit.

Opinion

Photographer: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images/Getty Images

Educating Donald Trump has been an expensive and perilous proposition for the US and the world, writes Timothy O’Brien. A foolhardy and unpredictable executive-in-training will be measured by whether he defines his Iranian studies by weeks of failed exams–or commits himself to years of mindless and cataclysmic classwork.

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Before You Go

Photographer: Camilla Rutherford for Bloomberg Businessweek

From the Alps to New Zealand, travelers of all abilities are hopping on choppers to experience breathtaking places on foot. Here’s why it’s not cheating.

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