Mashadipati: Trump’s Iran ultimatum

Good morning. President Trump’s deadline to Iran looms. OPEC+ warns of lasting damage to energy assets. NASA’s Artemis II astronauts are set to fly by the Moon’s far side today. Listen to the day’s top stories.

— Tiago Ramos Alfaro

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Donald Trump issued a renewed ultimatum to Iran: reopen the Strait of Hormuz or the US will bring “Hell” and destroy Iran’s power plants starting Tuesday. This latest threat, posted on social media and laced with expletives, follows the rescue of a US airman more than a day after his fighter jet was shot down—a development that pierced the aura of invincibility Trump has sought to project as he tries to manage the growing risks of the Iran war (more on that below). Iran, this morning, said “no rational person” would agree to a ceasefire at this point. Axios reported that the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire.

What to watch today: US stock futures edged higher in thin trading with many markets in Europe closed. President Trump will hold a press conference at 1 p.m. ET.

Keeping sea lanes open relies on ships being able to pass freely through choke points like Hormuz. — Satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz.

At sea, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has climbed to its highest levels since the early days of the war. Oil tankers carrying crude from Iraq appear to be transiting the chokepoint after Iran said its neighbor had a special exemption. Iraq told Asian traders and refiners they can load its crude, testing buyers’ confidence in the security guarantee. Two tankers carrying liquefied natural gas from Qatar also headed toward the strait, which would mark the first export to buyers outside the region since the war started.

So what does this all mean for oil? Prices steadied as traders tracked the report of a push for a ceasefire, Trump’s latest ultimatum and record Saudi crude pricing. OPEC+, the group of key oil producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia, warned that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the war ends.

And the shockwaves are being felt worldwide. Italy began imposing limits on fuel supplies at some airports. It’s among the earliest instances of fuel shortages in Europe—the main importer of jet fuel from the Persian Gulf—impacting operations since the war started.

Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026. Dimon on Tuesday said he’s starting to see parallels to the era before the 2008 financial crisis, when a rush to make loans ended disastrously. Photographer: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg — Jamie Dimon on Feb. 25, 2026.

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon urged the US to “get stronger” in order to maintain its military and economic might, in his annual letter to shareholders today. The bank’s recently been more vocal on big-picture policy issues, launching programs like its “American Dream Initiative” to expand economic opportunity in local communities and grow its small-business banking.

Deep Dive: Disruption

Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11. Photographer: Altaf Qadri/AP Photo — Oil tankers and cargo ships line up near the Strait of Hormuz, on March 11.

Of all the things Trump has done that may disrupt global commerce—from levying punitive tariffs to tearing up trade deals—few would be as consequential as withdrawing and leaving the rest of the world to secure the Persian Gulf.

European and Asian officials said the conflict has eroded faith in America’s role as the protector of the high seas, raising concerns about energy prices and shifting security calculations.
A withdrawal, which the president has repeatedly threatened as his war with Iran drags on, would also represent a break with decades of US policy.
Since World War II, the US has used its navy to deter attacks, counter piracy and challenge attempts by states to restrict lawful passage across sea lanes that carry about four-fifths of the $35 trillion global goods trade.
Here are our explainers on what it would take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and why Iran’s chokehold on the waterway is upending oil supply.

The Big Take

A Wall Street sign near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Thursday, May 22, 2025. A surge in long-term bond yields is once again threatening to upend a crowded hedge-fund bet that Treasuries will perform better than interest-rate swaps. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

US regulators are rewriting some of the policies that can trigger so-called debanking, a move that risks making it harder for firms to cut off problematic customers or those suspected of criminal activity.

Big Take Podcast

Trump’s Iran Address Fails to Ease Markets

Opinion

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The Iran war is straining the petrodollar system that has long anchored US financial dominance, Aaron Brown writes. As oil flows stall and foreign central banks sell Treasuries, the decades-old cycle of recycling petrodollars into American debt is faltering—raising fresh doubts about the greenback’s status.

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US President Donald Trump arrives for a prime-time address to the nation in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, April 1, 2026. Trump said the war in Iran is "very close" to completion, seeking to reassure Americans about his handling of a conflict that has roiled financial markets and jeopardized his political standing with American voters. Photographer: Alex Brandon/AP Photo

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Before You Go

NASA astronaut and Artemis II mission specialist Christina Koch peers out of one of the Orion spacecraft's main cabin windows, looking back at Earth, as the crew travels towards the Moon on April 4, 2026 Source: NASA — NASA astronaut and Artemis II mission specialist Christina Koch.

NASA’s mission to the moon has been going relatively smoothly except for one vital piece of technology: the toilet. The good news is that after “baking” its vent in the sun, the problem has been resolved and the Artemis II crew, which launched into space on Wednesday, will fly by the far side of the moon today.

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Trump’s Iran ultimatum