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I’m Jonathan Tamari, senior Washington reporter for Bloomberg Government, and each weekday I’ll be coming to you with inside-the-room reporting and insights that reveal what’s really happening in Washington—and how it impacts you. Email me with feedback and comments here. If this newsletter was forwarded to you sign up here. Today: Iran war stasis, Dems get a win in Virginia, and $30,000 rides to the World Cup. And Another OneAnother deadline. Another extension. Donald Trump’s indefinite lengthening of the US ceasefire with Iran yesterday suggests the president is reluctant to resume armed conflict, but also lacks a clear off-ramp to a war nearing the two-month mark. “What we’re really seeing here is an indefinite war,” Senator Elizabeth Warren told Bloomberg Television.  
The result: a tense stasis, with fighting on hold, but no clarity on when the economic and political pressure will ease, or the Strait of Hormuz will open. Early Wednesday, Iran seized two ships trying to pass, according to the country’s semi-official news outlet Tasnim. Tuesday’s ceasefire extension continues a by-now predictable pattern: Trump threatens escalation (or even obliteration of a civilization), then doesn’t escalate. This extension was at least the fourth of the war and came just hours after JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan for more talks was put on hold, and days after Trump said a peace deal was nearly complete. This time Trump didn’t set a new deadline. He blamed the Iranian government for being fractured over negotiations, and said he would keep blocking the strait until Tehran submits a unified proposal, or discussions conclude. He appears to hope the blockade and more verbal hectoring will build pressure in a way bombing didn’t. 
Tehran on March 21
Photographer: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Europe
A Bloomberg analysis of satellite data gives some indication of the bombs’ effects. In Tehran (around the size of New York City, with 9 million residents), 2,816 buildings have been hit, with around 32% linked to the military, 25% to industry, 21% to civilians, 19% commercial and 2% governmental. Despite the toll, Iran hasn’t even committed to new negotiations. The economic effects, meanwhile, have sent global markets on a neck-rattling roller coaster ride, with oil, equity and currencies swinging wildly in response to each new threat or forecast of peace. A Bank of America measure of market risk has been falling back to normal territory, a sign that market whipsaws might be less dramatic going forward. Tuesday’s announcement came after markets closed. Stocks rose early Wednesday and Brent briefly traded above $100 a barrel. 
Still, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Tuesday that a change in recession risks could be “only one tweet away.” (A spokesman later said he was “obviously joking.“) Kidding or not, much of the world has spent two months hanging on Trump’s every word/post about a war with global effects. That uncertainty may also be indefinite. Top NewsKevin Warsh’s Fed nomination is coming down to a battle of wills between Trump and Republican Senator Thom Tillis. Until that’s resolved, Warsh is stuck, regardless of his hearing yesterday. 
Warsh rejected the idea that he’d be a “sock puppet,” saying he’d be an independent actor if confirmed to the Fed. He told the Senate Banking Committee that Trump never asked him to commit to any particular rate decision
Democrats gained momentum in their bid to win the House after Virginia voters approved an aggressive redistricting plan to oust up to four Republicans. Ex-Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer had big ambitions — including being on the JD Vance ticket in 2028. Instead, she exited among misconduct accusations that got so toxic some business leaders were avoiding meetings. Trump late yesterday appeared to suggest China may have given Iran war supplies, testing a US red line. He said the US caught a ship “that had some things on it” adding “a gift from China, perhaps, I don’t know.” The IRS push to eliminate paper checks means some taxpayers are waiting longer for refunds, Chris Cioffi writes. Crypto billionaire Justin Sun sued World Liberty Financial, a crypto project co-founded by Trump, saying it’s “on the verge of collapse.” A $30,000 helicopter flight or $150 train ride? Fans heading to the World Cup this summer can expect exorbitant transportation costs, to go along with exorbitant everything else. One Big (Low) NumberCongress has rarely been popular — but a new Gallup poll shows its standing is as bad as it’s ever been in modern history, Gregory Korte tells us. Just 10% of Americans approve of how Congress is handling its job, while 86% disapprove, tying a record high in Gallup’s polling. The latest drop — of 16 points since September — coincides with a 43-day government shutdown and prolonged standoff over Homeland Security funding. 
Watch This
Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) talks about Anthropic’s Mythos AI, Warsh’s nomination and the ceasefire extension on Bloomberg Television.
Go Deeper With BGOVNow that first-quarter lobbying disclosures are in, BGOV’s Kate Ackley and Caitlin Oprysko have the big takeaways for you. Among the top 10 spenders are some of the usual suspects, like the US Chamber and PhRMA. 
On Today’s AgendaTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testify (separately) on the Hill Plus, the secretaries of HHS, Interior, Agriculture and Energy testify at various hearings about the 2027 budget request It’s Earth Day 🌎 More From BloombergLike Washington Edition? Check out these newsletters:
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