Washington Edition: Iran’s ticking clock

I’m Jonathan Tamari, senior Washington reporter for Bloomberg Government, and each weekday I’ll be coming to you with inside-the-room reporting and insights that reveal what’s really happening in Washington—and how it impacts you. Email me with feedback and comments here. If this newsletter was forwarded to you sign up here.

Today, another Iran deadline arrives, Georgia replaces MTG, and H-1B crackdowns

The (Last?) Ultimatum

It’s decision day for Donald Trump. Maybe.

At 8 p.m. in Washington we’ll hit the president’s latest deadline for Iran to make a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz or, as he has put it, get bombed “back to the Stone Ages.”

We’ve been here before.

Trump has moved deadlines for Iran to reopen the strait three times in the past 18 days, all while also saying the war was “very complete” or “winding down” and that Iran was “begging” for a deal.

To recap:

• March 21: Trump gives Iran 48 hours to open the strait
• March 23: he adds 5 days onto the timeline
• March 26: the deadline is extended further to April 6
• April 5: he moves it to April 7

So will we see another last-minute swerve? Or is this the time Trump follows through on his pledge to unleash “hell”?

As of this morning, there was little sign of peace — Iran has pressed on with attacks across the Gulf as the deadline looms.

Meanwhile, the president’s methods and motives are often a mystery to anyone other than himself. He has “the best plan,” on Iran but won’t spell it out publicly, he told reporters yesterday. He called Hormuz a “very big priority” after downplaying its importance last week, and veered into tangents about his popularity in Venezuela, his anger over not getting Greenland, and frustration at being denied the Nobel Peace Prize.

Even he “can’t tell” if the war is about to end or get more intense, he said, but if it’s the latter, he promised it’ll be big, and fast: “I mean complete demolition by 12 o’clock.”  

If Trump follows through, he’ll escalate an unpopular war now in its sixth week. He hopes he might strike a decisive blow that forces Iran to surrender and allow oil to flow again. But the move also comes with new risks to the global economy, could drag the US and region deeper into conflict, and, if he keeps to his threats to bomb power plants and other infrastructure, may constitute a war crime.

To his supporters, the president’s unpredictability is a strength, leaving allies and enemies alike off balance. Sometimes (as in Venezuela) he delivers. He may do so again in Iran. But rivals and markets have also seen enough big talk turn into little action that it has its own acronym.

“The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it,” Trump wrote in The Art of the Deal.

The question this morning is whether it’s Iran or the president who is more desperate. By 8 p.m., we should have an answer.

Top News

Trump has repeatedly mused about “taking” Iran’s oil. Sources tell Josh Wingrove and Jen Dlouhy that the president believes bringing Tehran’s energy flows under US control could bolster his bargaining power with the Chinese. A White House official said the president likes the idea of taking Iran’s oil, but cautioned there are no formal plans to do so.

Democratic states and activist groups trying to shut down “Alligator Alcatraz” and other new Homeland Security facilities are turning to environmental law. They say the department brushed off required studies on the impacts of their new buildings. DHS says it’s not about the environment, just “trying to stop President Trump from making America safe again.”

Employers who rely on H-1B visas face more intense investigations from the Labor Department, showing the agency taking a stronger role in the Trump’s immigration agenda. Attorneys said their clients have seen a drastic increase in site visits and more complicated information inquiries since the department launched Project Firewall last year.

Trump’s new diplomacy: arms sales and commercial transactions. Gone is USAID. In are deals for weapons and, as one US military officer put it, “trade, not aid.” Peter Martin paints the scene from a recent military conclave in Rome.

A Georgia special election tonight will offer the latest measure of how voters feel about Trump and the GOP. Republicans are heavily favored in the race to replace former Representative (and erstwhile Trump ally) Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Democrats have vastly overperformed expectations in elections since Trump returned to office. If they even come close in a district he won by nearly 37 percentage points, it’ll be another warning sign for Republicans.

Speaking of which: Democratic successes in flipping 30 state legislative seats during Trump’s term to zero for Republicans have them expanding their ambitions for House races this fall, Alexandra Samuels writes. Their first batch of targeted districts include several that Trump won big.

Watch & Listen

Go Deeper With BGOV

Virginia Democrats are sparing no expense in their bid to enact an aggressive new congressional map that could sway control of the House, Greg Giroux writes.

They’ve spent more than $39 million on ads asking voters to approve a proposed state constitutional amendment allowing new district lines favoring Democrats in up to 10 of 11 districts. The new map could produce a net gain of four seats in the November midterms.

BGOV clients can click here to subscribe to Greg Giroux’s weekly Election Day newsletter, with insights into upcoming votes.

What’s Next

Georgia election for a House seat formerly held by Marjorie Taylor-Green

Wisconsin Supreme Court election

Durable goods data is released

Trump hosts a 7 p.m. dinner for Sergio Gor, the US ambassador to India

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