Washington Edition: What was it all for?

I’m Jonathan Tamari, senior Washington reporter for Bloomberg Government, and each weekday I’ll be coming to you with inside-the-room reporting and insights that reveal what’s really happening in Washington—and how it impacts you. Email me with feedback and comments here. If this newsletter was forwarded to you sign up here.

Today, Trump finds an off-ramp, checking the “freak-out” index, and now we have to worry about toilet paper?

War, What Is it Good for?

The big question this morning is what Donald Trump gained from launching a war that killed thousands (including 13 US service members), shook the global economy, frayed relationships with allies, and damaged his political standing at home.

At first glance, not much.

The same core challenges remain, our colleagues write:

Trump has two weeks to figure out whether he’s untangled the knot he created in Iran, or just pulled it tighter.

The pattern Tuesday was familiar. The president – stop us if you’ve heard this before – backed off a set of massive threats, defused a crisis of his own making, and proclaimed success while leaving the final outcome fuzzy. He even set his favorite timeline for an agreement: two weeks.

Oil prices plunged and stocks surged on the news. Bloodshed slowed, at least for now, though there were still scattered reports of strikes in the Gulf this morning.

A lot, of course, remains unclear in the immediate aftermath of the agreement announced 90 minutes before Trump’s Tuesday deadline to annihilate Iranian civilization. More details are still coming and negotiations could yield more gains.

But the president accustomed to bullying his way to victories with social media found that Iran wouldn’t cave in the same way as, say, Venezuela or members of Congress or some law firms.

The most obvious thing Trump got, the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, at best restores the status quo, and might not even do that.

While Trump said the ceasefire depends on the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE” reopening of the vital waterway, Iran said passage would be coordinated with its armed forces – implying that Tehran plans to retain a measure of control. It also wants to impose new shipping fees as part of a deal.

JD Vance called the truce “fragile” Wednesday morning, but said Iran had agreed to open the strait and that the US had achieved its military objectives.

Meanwhile Trump’s erratic month as a war-time president, and his frantic search for an off-ramp, will color how enemies and allies deal with him going forward. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has a well-timed meeting with Trump at the White House today.

Adversaries and allies alike described the outcome as a strategic setback for the US, one that will “dent Trump’s credibility as a negotiator” and likely embolden Vladimir Putin in talks over Ukraine, Alex Wickham writes from Europe.

“Although Iran has suffered huge physical damage and much loss of life, it emerges strategically stronger,” said former UK National Security Adviser Peter Ricketts. “The regime has survived. It has shown the massive leverage control of Hormuz gives them.”

How about Trump’s goals?

• Regime change: Israel and the US killed Ali Khamenei, the 86-year-old hard-line de facto head of state. But the supreme leader, who was likely near the end of his life anyway, was replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is just 56 and has every reason to be just as hostile toward the US and Israel. The uprising Trump encouraged never showed many signs of materializing.
  
• Stopping Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb: The enriched uranium that was buried under rubble before the start of this war appears no more – and also no less – accessible. The ceasefire didn’t address demands for limits on Iran’s missiles or nuclear program.
  
• Decimating Iran’s military: By all US accounts the fighting has massively damage Iran’s Navy and Air Force, and depleted its store of missiles. Still, Iran showed it still has enough power to down a US fighter, strike at neighbors, and shut down the strait. 

It will take time to see the full price tag for those results. We’re left to watch how quickly the economy recovers, what the latest rupture with Europe means long-term, the full tab to US taxpayers, and if the fighting has diminished US readiness elsewhere.

“If he was going to back down, he did so in the worst way,” wrote Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a libertarian think tank. “Raising the stakes so high beforehand, he maximized the damage to his credibility & global perceptions of U.S. power. This is a clear strategic defeat for the U.S.”

Top News

Wall Street is getting its freak (out) on and because this is Bloomberg, yes, we have a data point for that. The Bloomberg Intelligence “freak out” indicator (it’s based on trading volume but don’t ask us to explain this early in the morning) has been hit 29 times this year. That’s already more than all of 2025. Can’t imagine why.

If you need more reasons to worry: a toilet paper warehouse in California was severely damaged by fire.

Meanwhile, Congress continued its recess. BGOV’s Roxana Tiron and Lillianna Byington explain how, even if they were in DC, there’s little they could do that would have any immediate effect to curb Trump’s ability to wage war.

In Georgia, Republicans held onto Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former House seat, but the result might still give them worry. The GOP’s Clay Fuller was on track to win by single digits in a district that Trump won by nearly 37 percentage points in 2024. The GOP edge in the House will now grow to 218 to 214, at least until an April 16 New Jersey special election.

Dems also coasted to victory in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race Tuesday, expanding their majority to 5-2.

Influential Democrats are embracing the Republican playbook of enacting tax cuts, with an eye toward winning control of Congress in November and the White House in 2028, Chris Cioffi writes.

Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor indirectly criticized fellow Justice Brett Kavanaugh for failing to grasp the real-world effects of an order last year allowing immigration enforcement sweeps. “This is from a man whose parents were professionals. And probably doesn’t really know any person who works by the hour,” she said. Sotomayor didn’t name Kavanaugh but referred to a concurrence in which he dismissed the stops as temporary.

Watch This

Read More: Ecuador President Says US Troops Could Help Confront Drug Gangs

Go Deeper With BGOV

Trump is no longer prioritizing sweeping cuts to government programs as part of his budget pitch to Congress, spurning fiscal hawks within his party who warn the nearly $39 trillion national debt is spiraling out of control, BGOV’s Karl Evers-Hillstrom writes.

What’s Next

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee releases minutes from its last meeting. They may shed light on officials’ concerns about inflation or the potential economic impacts stemming from the Iran conflict 

The White House holds a press briefing at 1 p.m.

Trump meets with the head of NATO at 3:30 p.m.

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