Reagan’s question
Hundreds of millions of Chinese people have taken a hit to their wealth, thanks to a drawn-out housing bust as well as a stock-market rout. For workers and entrepreneurs across China, it all translates into a fear that the good times may be over, Rebecca Choong Wilkins and Tom Orlik write in Bloomberg's latest Big Take.
That points to trouble ahead for the Communist leadership, whose power is sometimes said to rest on an unstated bargain: The Chinese people tolerate having little say in how they're governed, as long as they keep getting richer. It'll be harder for Xi than it was for his immediate predecessors to keep the Party's end of that deal.
Xi's goal is a more sustainable expansion — even if that means going a bit slower — instead of one that's driven by frenzied speculation in real estate. The government is pinning hopes on high-tech industries like electric vehicles to deliver 5% growth this year, and has a fair chance of pulling it off.
But there's little sign that the property crash is over, or that Beijing, despite recent initiatives, has figured out a comprehensive fix. In the meantime, Xi's new growth strategy goes side-by-side with promises to share a slower-growing pie more equitably, and also with ever-more intensive surveillance. Chinese cities have a larger number of hidden cameras per citizen than anywhere else. The cautious opening-up of China's society, which accompanied rapid growth in the golden years, appears to have gone into reverse.
When Chinese people do manage to express dissent in public, according to researchers at Freedom House, the main target is clear: About 80% of protests last year were focused on the weak economy.
In a democracy, this kind of gloom would spell trouble for the leader. US presidential candidates since Ronald Reagan in 1980 have posed a simple question to voters: Are you better off today than you were four years ago? In China, that question can hardly be asked in public — leaving the consequences of economic discontent unpredictable.
That points to trouble ahead for the Communist leadership, whose power is sometimes said to rest on an unstated bargain: The Chinese people tolerate having little say in how they're governed, as long as they keep getting richer. It'll be harder for Xi than it was for his immediate predecessors to keep the Party's end of that deal.
Xi's goal is a more sustainable expansion — even if that means going a bit slower — instead of one that's driven by frenzied speculation in real estate. The government is pinning hopes on high-tech industries like electric vehicles to deliver 5% growth this year, and has a fair chance of pulling it off.
But there's little sign that the property crash is over, or that Beijing, despite recent initiatives, has figured out a comprehensive fix. In the meantime, Xi's new growth strategy goes side-by-side with promises to share a slower-growing pie more equitably, and also with ever-more intensive surveillance. Chinese cities have a larger number of hidden cameras per citizen than anywhere else. The cautious opening-up of China's society, which accompanied rapid growth in the golden years, appears to have gone into reverse.
A local official speaks with a demonstrator holding a blank sign during a protest in Beijing in November 2022. Source: /Bloomberg
When Chinese people do manage to express dissent in public, according to researchers at Freedom House, the main target is clear: About 80% of protests last year were focused on the weak economy.
In a democracy, this kind of gloom would spell trouble for the leader. US presidential candidates since Ronald Reagan in 1980 have posed a simple question to voters: Are you better off today than you were four years ago? In China, that question can hardly be asked in public — leaving the consequences of economic discontent unpredictable.
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