Washington Edition: Trump’s populist disconnect

Welcome to Washington Edition, our now twice-daily flagship newsletter covering the intersection of politics, power, and money. Each morning and afternoon we'll help you understand what's happening – and what's next – with analysis and insight from across Bloomberg News, Bloomberg Government, Bloomberg Television, podcasts and radio.

I'm Jonathan Tamari and I'll be leading the morning editions. I'm a senior Washington reporter for BGOV and I've covered the scene for the last 14 years.

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Trump's Populist Disconnect

Donald Trump is facing a disconnect.

His power over politics, policy, and culture remains. But just about every poll suggests the man who rose up as a populist has veered far from what most voters want – lower costs and a stronger economy. 

He's risking even more distance if he puts troops on the ground in Iran while gas prices climb at home. Trump has signaled it's possible, saying he's looking to wind things down one moment but threatening escalation the next. Iran's new wave of strikes across the Gulf overnight suggest the conflict (and its ripple effects) won't end soon.

The president's focus on everything but "affordability" has alienated many voters, and when you consider what matters in Washington right now — and for the rest of this year at least — Trump's political slide is the big factor coloring everything else.

Photographer: Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg

Nearly two-thirds of Americans, including 69% of independents, disapprove of how Trump is handling the cost of living, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll out Friday. A majority (59%) disapprove of the war in Iran. Trump's personal approval rating is deeply negative.

But as most Republicans urge the party to focus on costs, Trump continues looking elsewhere. He's fighting for a voter ID law above all other legislation, even as a housing affordability bill languishes, and is threatening to deploy ICE to some airports to fix long lines.

If his poll numbers keep falling, Republicans in Congress will have to break away or risk getting wiped out in November's elections. Both could happen. Trump faces a potentially short window of retaining total control in Washington.

For such an unconventional president, the trajectory is surprisingly familiar. Like many of his second-term predecessors, Trump overreached. Adding an unpopular Middle East slog almost feels like too obvious a plot twist.

Of course, things could still shift. Trump is a proven escape artist and has tools to shape world events. Opposing Democrats have deep image problems, too.

Trump's aggression remains the defining force everyone else has to grapple with. But after fueling his first year back in office, it risks derailing the rest of his presidency.

Don't Miss

Mullin Advances: Markwayne Mullin is expected to be confirmed today as Homeland Security secretary after the Senate advanced his nomination past a key procedural step.

LGA Crash: An Air Canada express plane collided with a fire truck at LaGuardia Airport Sunday, killing the two pilots.

Economy Health Check: The first global health check since the Iran war began lands this week, and it might look ugly, write Craig Stirling and Vince Golle.

Trump's Green Light: Among those urging Trump to strike Iran were Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Rupert Murdoch. Trump's actual White House advisers were more muted — but few, if anyone, directly told him it was a bad idea, Catherine Lucey and Nancy Cook reveal in an eye-popping story.

Oil Watch: Trump has been a champion of fossil fuels. But when energy execs gather today in Houston for CERAWeek, leaders in Big Oil will be considering what the lasting costs are from the war, Kevin Crowley reports.

Mail-In Fight: The Supreme Court will hear arguments today that could upend key election deadlines in as many as 29 states in a case that draws the justices into Trump's campaign against mail-in ballots.

Tax Shelters: A whistleblower is urging federal authorities to investigate a tax shelter that allegedly allows wealthy Americans to claim massive charitable tax deductions through donations of digital technology to small 501(c)(3) organizations.

Watch & Listen

Ernesto Soberón Guzmán, Cuba's ambassador to the United Nations, says his country will not remove its president in order to appease the US. Guzmán spoke in a wide-ranging exclusive conversation with Bloomberg This Weekend's David Gura.

Go Deeper With BGOV

The administration's AI legislative framework met a skeptical Congress but has drawn praise from the tech industry. The proposal directs Congress to preempt state laws on AI developer liability and avoid spinning up a new federal rulemaking agency, according to BGOV's John Woolley and Claire Hebert.

What's Next

Senate vote to confirm Markwayne Mullin to lead DHS

Construction spending figures for January will be released

Supreme Court hears argument over mail-in ballots

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