High-stakes transit

Good morning. Ships come under fire near the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran talks stall. A heated rivalry is brewing in prediction markets. And we look at Monaco’s dirty money problem. Listen to the day’s top stories.

— Marc Perrier

Oil prices briefly topped $100 a barrel again as efforts to resolve the seven-week Middle East conflict faltered. Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz for “endangering maritime security,” state TV reported. Earlier, the UK navy said an Iranian gunboat fired on two ships near the waterway.

The world’s biggest energy traders are reaping another windfall as the war disrupts oil markets. Vitol Group, the world’s largest oil trader, told banks it made about $2 billion in the first quarter. Airlines, however, are feeling the strain, with surging jet fuel prices forcing carriers to ground planes and cut flights.

SpaceX said it has the right to buy AI startup Cursor for $60 billion later this year or pay $10 billion for the companies’ joint work, as part of Elon Musk’s push to catch up with rivals in AI coding tools. SpaceX isn’t looking to acquire Cursor immediately though, due to its planned IPO, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Apple’s New CEO Will Need to Stave Off Exodus of Top Talent

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Millions of fans preparing for this year’s FIFA World Cup are already feeling the sting of high ticket prices, and getting to the stadium can be as costly. Options range from helicopter rides out of New York and Boston costing up to $30,000 to round-trip New Jersey transit tickets costing $150. Meanwhile, Mexico has pledged increased security for tourists as it gears up for the tournament.

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Deep Dive: Heated Rivalry

Polymarket, long the leader in prediction market trading, is falling behind rival Kalshi as a series of missteps hinders its push to reach a crucial audience: US customers.

• The setbacks are shaping a battle for the future of a fast-growing industry seeking to change gambling and finance by offering a new way to bet on just about anything.
• Competition is intensifying. While Polymarket led the sector for years, its trading volume has recently been overtaken by Kalshi, which last month announced funding that valued it at $22 billion.
• Kalshi has sought to align itself with regulators and large institutions, while Polymarket has stood out for defying regulatory and financial norms. It also counts the US president’s son among its advisers and investors.

The Big Take

New satellite analysis shows extensive damage from US and Israeli strikes on Tehran and across Iran, underscoring the heightened stakes if the conflict escalates further.

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Opinion

Saudi Arabia’s potential rethink on its costly LIV golf venture may signal broader shifts ahead, Lionel Laurent writes. The war’s economic toll and the need to reinvest in defense and infrastructure is refocusing attention on domestic priorities.

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Before You Go

Monaco’s ultra-luxury property market—where some properties top almost €500 million—is under pressure to shed its reputation as a haven for dirty money, long dubbed a “sunny place for shady people.”

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